Card pack statistics

Info

Notes

• All card packs guarantee a card of Rare or better rarity, among the 5 cards opened. This means every card pack will guarantee having at least one card of Rare/Epic/Legendary rarity, or in other words, all 5 cards will never be all of Common rarity.
• All types of card pack have the same chances at rarities Rarity is a rough measure of the quality and scarcity of a card. Cards of higher rarity are typically more powerful and more useful, but are harder to find and more expensive to craft. There and golden cards Golden cards often add movement and visual effects, like with this golden Piloted Shredder "Golden" redirects here. For information on golden heroes, see Golden heroes. Golden cards are special, rarer versions of cards. Each card .
• Opening 100 packs from an expansion set Expansions are major card set additions to the game of Hearthstone. Expansions introduce large amounts of cards into the game, in contrast to adventures, 1] with expansions featuring around 130-145 new cards and adventures only is roughly equivalent to obtaining 75% of the cards in that set.
  • 100 packs is approximately (98/98) Commons, (64/72) Rares, (20/54) Epics, and (4.5/20) Legendaries (taking Mean Streets of Gadgetzan "Gadgetzan, where the gangs rule the streets; Gadgetzan, full of swindlers and cheats. Zip and sing the ring-a-ding-ding, on the mean streets of Gadgetzan! Gadgetzan, where the crime doesn t pay; Gadgetzan - but we do as the example set The card set interface Card sets are categories into which collectible cards are divided, reflecting how they can be obtained, and determining whether they are eligible for use in Standard format. Card set does not ).
• According to the meta-study data in this article from 2015, the average number of packs to open before receiving another Legendary card is 18.
• Cards are decided during the opening of packs, not during the moment of purchase.
  • A case has been made for "predetermined rarities" when opening packs "again". This probably means that Hearthstone uses some method of seeding that allows it to determine the rarities of a player`s future cards well in advance, and snapshots of the seeding progress are cached periodically server-side as a back-up mechanism in case of a system or database failure, as is what happened in China.
• A true Hearthstone pack opening simulator cannot be created unless the source code is revealed. (See Discussion)
  • Be that as it may, using the data showing the probability percentages of opening cards belonging to each rarity type, a user-generated "pack opening" simulator can be created. Employing Monte Carlo repeated simulation of such pack openings can yield information as to the average number of "missing" and "extra" cards a player may receive from opening "n" packs. Information as to the amount of dust Crafting mode, in Standard format mode The crafting system is an element of Hearthstone that allows players to directly create new cards. It can be accessed through the My Collection screen. Crafting consumes Arcane Dust obtained from disenchanting all "extra" cards obtained from such packs can also be obtained.
  • Other simulators may base their simulation on guesses as to how individual cards are selected to be opened from the card pool. The raw data obtained from this article can be used to either debunk or verify such hypothetical user-generated pack opening simulators.
• As seen with the Tri-class card opening bug on Dec. 1, 2016, in which Tri-class cards had a higher than normal chance of appearing in packs, there appears to be a card-opening variable based on " Classes Class is the primary determinant of a hero s powers and abilities, and the strongest factor in deck selection. While each hero represents a unique character with their own personality, portrait and sounds, their class determines ".
• China is, by law, requiring games which featureSpecial attraction random drops purchasable by money, to publicly releaseAnnounce the drop rates/statistics for those random drops, effective May 1, 2017. This includes Hearthstone The Hearthstone icon Hearthstone (formerly known as Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 1] 2]) is a free-to-play digital collectible card game from Blizzard Entertainment. It was first announced in a presentation by Rob Pardo at the .

Videos

Pity Timer

There is strong evidence that a "Pity Timer" exists, which defines a maximum number of packs that a player opens before guaranteeing the next Rare/Epic/Legendary card. This Pity Timer counter is tracked individually for each store-bought expansion set, including Classic set The card set interface Card sets are categories into which collectible cards are divided, reflecting how they can be obtained, and determining whether they are eligible for use in Standard format. Card set does not .

• An Epic Rarity is a rough measure of the quality and scarcity of a card. Cards of higher rarity are typically more powerful and more useful, but are harder to find and more expensive to craft. There card will be opened within 10 packs of the last opened Epic, for that set.
• A Legendary Rarity is a rough measure of the quality and scarcity of a card. Cards of higher rarity are typically more powerful and more useful, but are harder to find and more expensive to craft. There card will be opened within 40 packs of the last opened Legendary, for that set.

Expected dust value

According to the below meta-study`s data tabulated under the "Golden cards" section, the average card pack has a disenchanting Crafting mode, in Standard format mode The crafting system is an element of Hearthstone that allows players to directly create new cards. It can be accessed through the My Collection screen. Crafting consumes Arcane Dust value of 98.25 Arcane Dust Crafting mode, in Standard format mode The crafting system is an element of Hearthstone that allows players to directly create new cards. It can be accessed through the My Collection screen. Crafting consumes Arcane Dust . Each card has an average disenchanting value of 19.65 Arcane Dust.

An in-depth statistical analysis of how much dust you can expect to get from a given pack opening is available here: https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3bqvxx/have_you_ever_wondered_how_much_value_you_can_get/

Meta-study

The following numbers combine data from several other studies on this page. Since the numbers provided by each study are relatively similar, this is mostly for the convenience of a single overview of the statistics, as well as improved accuracy in the rarer cases. The original studies can be found in later sections.

Currently included studies:

• Steve Marinconz (Jun. 2014)
• E. R. Kjellgren (Aug. 2014)
• Amaz (Feb. 2015)
• HearthSim (Aug. 2015)

This produces a total sample size of 27,868 card packs, describing 139,340 cards in total.

Golden cards

Golden card data gathered prior to The Grand Tournament "From east to west, heroes are sent, seeking glory in the greatest of events... there are knights on noble steeds; those who will bring them to their knees; there are monsters to test their mettle show significant differences from that gathered after. For this reason the below information is currently taken solely from the most recent study: HearthSim (Aug. 2015).

The following table describes the likelihood of getting at least 1 golden card in a given pack.

The following table describes the percentage of cards of each rarity which will be golden.

Jun. 5, 2014: Steve Marinconz

On Jun. 5th 2014 Steve Marinconz published the following results in an article on Kotaku.com. The data was collected by aggregating the results of numerous card pack opening videos found online, with a total of 1,000 packs. The study used only videos filmed in the last two months.

As well as the chance of each card being of a specific rarity, Marinconz also calculated the probability of finding at least one card of each rarity in any given card pack.

Based upon this data, Marinconz` provided some interesting `fun facts`. While these are based on the results of this single, relatively small study, the closeness of the study`s results to those of other and larger studies suggests that the below information should still be relatively accurate, at least for the lower rarities.

• The chances of getting a pack with any 5 legendary cards is one in a million
• The chances of getting a pack with any 5 golden legendary cards is 1 in 3.2 billion
• There`s a 0.04% probability of getting 2 legendaries in a single pack
• The probability of getting a pack with only one common card is about ~0.80%
• There`s a 16.26% probability of getting a pack with any golden card
• Only 2.19% of common cards were golden, while 7.69% of legendaries were
• The average $50 purchase of 40 packs will be worth about 3,600 Arcane Dust
• The most common distribution was a `4100` - 4 commons and 1 rare - accounting for 61% of packs opened
• The second most common distribution was a `3200` - 3 commons and 2 rares - accounting for 12.2% of packs opened

Aug. 2014: E. R. Kjellgren

In Aug. 2014 E. R. Kjellgren published an investigation into the rarities of cards found in card packs. This was achieved by collecting user data from forums regarding the contents of 11,359 different card packs. The author notes that the investigation suffered from two main problems: the information collected was anonymous and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed; and the sample size, while adequate for the lower rarities, is still smaller than might be desired for the higher rarities. Kjellgren also divided rarities into golden and regular versions.

The data showed golden cards to be on average around 30 times less common than regular cards. Be that as it may, the proportion of golden and regular versions varied substantially by rarity. The author also notes that the sample sizes for the higher golden rarities are too small to be considered conclusive.

Feb. 12, 2015: Amaz opens 400 GVG Packs

Sources: @@@#@@@YouTube(youtube.com)###@### - Reddit

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Aug. 29, 2015: HearthSim compiles 15,109 TGT Packs

Sources: Reddit (initial post) - Reddit (update) - HearthSim - Raw CSV data

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Apr. 28, 2016: Kripparian opens 713 Old Gods Packs

Sources: Youtube - Raw data

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Apr. 28, 2016: Amaz opens 413 Old Gods Packs

Sources: Youtube - Raw data

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Dec. 1, 2016: Kripparian opens 896 Gadgetzan Packs (Before Tri-Class Bug Hotfix)

Sources: YouTubeTechnology company - Raw data

• The average card`s dust value is 20.672 dust. The average pack`s dust value is 103.36.
• The "tri-class bug" was a time when, during the opening day for Mean Streets of Gadgetzan "Gadgetzan, where the gangs rule the streets; Gadgetzan, full of swindlers and cheats. Zip and sing the ring-a-ding-ding, on the mean streets of Gadgetzan! Gadgetzan, where the crime doesn t pay; Gadgetzan - but we do , tri-class cards had a higher chance of being opened from packs than other cards.
• It is unknown whether the YouTubeTechnology company video catches all of the pack openings, since the raw data here was collected from the original Twitch VOD, and there were a lot of segues in-between pack openings, so the creator of the YouTube video might not have caught them all.
• Of the 896 packs, 6 were from the 3 promo quests.

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Dec. 1-2, 2016: Kripparian opens 450 Gadgetzan Packs (After Tri-Class Bug Hotfix)

Sources: YouTube (end of video, first 300 packs) - Raw data

• The average card`s dust value is 21.00 dust. The average pack`s dust value is 105.
• YouTube video should include the first 300 of the pack openings. The last 150 pack openings were opened the day after the YouTube video was created.
• Data was recorded by watching the original two Twitch VODs, not the YouTube video.

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Apr. 6, 2017: Kripparian opens 1101 Journey to Un`Goro Packs

Sources: Twitch VOD (will eventually be deleted) - Raw data

• The average card`s dust value is 21.57 dust. The average pack`s dust value is 107.86.
• The data shows that golden Rares, all Epics, and all Legendary cards appear more frequently in Journey to Un`Goro when compared to the data in HearthSim`s Aug. 2015 study for The Grand Tournament.
• The data shown here is somewhat similar to the data gathered during Whispers of the Old Gods, with the exception of golden Rares appearing more in Journey to Un`Goro than in Whispers of the Old Gods.
• Data was recorded by watching the original Twitch VOD.
• Refer to Kripp`s YouTube channel for video footage of the card pack openings when the Twitch video eventually gets deleted.

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Apr. 8, 2017: N. Millar opens 1256 Journey to Un`Goro Packs

Sources: YouTube - Raw data

• The average card`s dust value is 20.88 dust. The average pack`s dust value is 104.38.
• Data was recorded by watching the YouTube video.

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden: